tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post4636424425807734698..comments2024-03-25T17:26:33.773+09:00Comments on Here's no great matter: Wrong, wrong, and wrong againPrufrockhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-42842801696477370982021-09-08T15:35:18.417+09:002021-09-08T15:35:18.417+09:00Thanks for your thoughts, P-f-t-P, and to you as w...Thanks for your thoughts, P-f-t-P, and to you as well, Brian.Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-16863281585286146692021-09-06T04:15:49.992+09:002021-09-06T04:15:49.992+09:00One final note on Coalition victory in ADP: recent...One final note on Coalition victory in ADP: recently over on Space-Biff!, his blog of game design reviews and thoughts, Daniel Thurot published a review of All Bridges Burning, a COIN system game on the Finnish Civil War. The comments turned again to A Distant Plain and Daniel remarked: <br /><br />"I suppose it depends on how one regards the handling of those foundations. Just last month, somebody on Twitter mentioned that this outcome was always inevitable in Afghanistan, and that the only piece of media that really understood that inevitability was A Distant Plain — specifically, that the better your faction performs, the worse its relationships with its allies become. (I wish I could find that comment now! Sadly, my searching skills have never been very good.)<br /><br />I get the sense that many people took Brian Train’s game as somehow propagandistic. I took it as a statement on how foreign interests clash. The best outcome for the Coalition is to shore up some support and then disappear from the country, even though none of the underlying causes of their involvement have been solved. That’s why I bring up the “Saturday night fever” problem. In most cases, one or two extra turns would spell defeat for the Coalition after their winning move.<br /><br />In other words, the Coalition can only win because the game state is finite. Played across an indefinite state, the Coalition will always lose. Which speaks more to the limitations of the medium than anything else."Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-85884323786730653422021-09-06T04:12:39.295+09:002021-09-06T04:12:39.295+09:00Volko spent his career as an intelligence analyst,...Volko spent his career as an intelligence analyst, and later as a teacher of intelligence analysts, for the CIA. He if anyone understands the limitations of analysis, the what-ifs it can generate, and the actual results that are always different in some way. He if anyone understands the futility of making a game or model and pointing to it and saying, "... and the real answer comes out here." I did not spend my career in this field but I don't feel any differently.Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-7484926098809069332021-09-06T04:07:56.039+09:002021-09-06T04:07:56.039+09:00And here is Volko Ruhnke, in his section of the de...And here is Volko Ruhnke, in his section of the designer's notes in the Playbook:<br /><br />"Game and Reality<br /><br />I will close with a few thoughts about designing on a still fresh—and, for many, raw—historical topic. My conviction is that even a rough simulation can add to the exchange of ideas on a controversial topic, and so such simulation in the form of an engaging game is worth attempting. The corollary is that how game designer choose to try to represent their perceptions of a controversial reality matters and is fair game for critique.<br /><br />First, as Brian notes, we don’t pretend with this board game and all its simplifications to be predicting anything about the way ahead in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, we do hope that playing the game will at least help those interested to explore and will help illuminate some<br />of the relationships and peculiarities of the complex conflict that continues to play out there.<br /><br />Second, in attempting to provide such exploration via a game, Brian and I have sought to withhold value judgments. We are not seeking here to convince anyone about rightness or wrongness of particular policies connected to the subject. We have aimed instead for respectful representation of the parties, as we imagine they perhaps might even see themselves, even while we as citizens of nations that have been participants in the conflict inevitably have loyalties."<br />Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-6716960236936445782021-09-06T04:04:55.245+09:002021-09-06T04:04:55.245+09:00Here are the last three paragraphs from my designe...Here are the last three paragraphs from my designer's notes in the playbook, as published in 2013: <br /><br />"History as Game, Game as History<br />This game was released in the summer of 2013, in advance of<br />NATO’s final withdrawal from combat operations. This is important to remember if you are reading these notes in 2020 and scoffing at how we got it wrong, or marveling at how we got it right.<br /><br />I think the hardest games of all to design are the ones about conflicts that are still going on, because you do not have the benefit of hindsight on the ultimate effectiveness or impact of what actually happened. I also think these games are also the most important ones to design, in relation to AJP Taylor’s famous quote that “History is what happened, in the context of what could have happened at the time.” We need games on contemporary conflicts, not necessarily to derive some kind of clairvoyance about the ending, but to organize our understanding of the conflict, as we continuously try to organize our understanding of the world around us.<br /><br />We do not claim any predictive value or even a particular political<br />agenda for this game. It does not present any “Magic Bullet”, perfect plan or pet theory for a never-fail solution to this war, or indeed to any insurgency. Our aim was to give players an indication of both just how complicated the situation is, and of many of the factors that contribute to its complexity. We feel we have done our research to derive the essential asymmetries between the four factions at the game’s level of abstraction, and populated the game’s “world” with a set of actual (and a few hypothetical) events that do or do not arise during play as players move through the Event Deck. This also gives the game a very unscripted quality, within bounds, and almost infinite replayability. The game’s scenarios also portray the conflict at three different points in its historical development, should players wish to “take over” at certain junctures."<br /><br />So, perhaps I got it a little wrong, as some people turn out to scoff in 2021, not 2020.Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-15311065688615214932021-09-06T04:04:13.613+09:002021-09-06T04:04:13.613+09:00Thank you.
Volko and I did not then, and do not no...Thank you.<br />Volko and I did not then, and do not now, nor did we ever claim any great predictive value for A Distant Plain. <br /><br />Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-75293516926415644842021-09-05T20:17:38.808+09:002021-09-05T20:17:38.808+09:00Your post raises interesting points. Still, If the...Your post raises interesting points. Still, If the game in question--or any game or simulation for that matter--states that the exercise will serve to predict (or even help predict) probable outcomes, then it's taking on a very heavy task indeed. I'm not at all sure that the designers of "A Distant Plain" have ever stated that it was what they were doing. For my part, I cannot think of others who claim that their designs exist for that purpose either. The vast majority of simulations look to depict events that occurred, or may appear in the future, given certain conditions. But there is a difference, I think, between depiction and prediction, between this is how the conflict went or could proceed versus here is the outcome, here's how it will end. Much of course depends on the simulation, but a good deal also rests on the players. And since many simulations are intriguing because they deal with what-if's, being able to identify the endgame accurately is antithetical to that purpose. <br /><br />Might I add that it is not only "Western analysts" but observers, commentators and experts elsewhere who were stunned by the Taliban's takeover. Beijing might be publicly basking in the glow of what is portrayed by many here in China (though not all) as a "further sign of American decline", but few if any seem to have seen this coming either, be they wargamers or area experts. There's a lesson or twelve here in the Taliban takeover for many of us, but it's not at all clear if what one wargames or where one lives will predict what one learns.<br /><br />Thanks for your post and for your very fine website and work. Politics From the Provinceshttps://politicsfromtheprovinces.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-20564445356778869482021-09-05T20:06:05.029+09:002021-09-05T20:06:05.029+09:00It will be interesting to see (although I daresay ...It will be interesting to see (although I daresay a blanket of secrecy will be deployed) to see how any wargames and their insights were used. I have been articles suggesting that it was distinctly career limiting to play too well as the enemy team in US military wargames and I daresay game assumptions that were too negative were also given a compulsory "revision".<br /><br />A bad workman always blames his tools so I wouldn't blame the gaming tool which provides are very disciplined frameworks for analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-52129651746744018292021-08-26T01:18:57.879+09:002021-08-26T01:18:57.879+09:00I think the current disaster was well anticipated ...I think the current disaster was well anticipated but not accepted by anyone who could have done anything about it. <br />You are right when you say it was a failure of planning, of imagination, of understanding and of leadership... to this I would add layers of organizational self-delusion (telling the boss what he wants to hear), conflict avoidance (not telling the boss what he doesn't want to hear), and the priority given to graft and greed by the Western principals (mostly Americans but other countries too: why stop the music while the money's raining down). <br />These are all things that can hardly be modelled in a board wargame; the analogue for ADP I described could only have been arrived at by deliberately, artificially bad play and factors outside the game world itself. Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-88861159413036725722021-08-25T18:07:57.944+09:002021-08-25T18:07:57.944+09:00Thanks Paolo, good points. Thanks Paolo, good points. Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-21104848101819694742021-08-25T18:06:09.184+09:002021-08-25T18:06:09.184+09:00Hi Brian, again, thanks for your comments. The pla...Hi Brian, again, thanks for your comments. The playbook for A Distant Plain that Brian mentions is online here for those who might like to look at that: https://www.gmtgames.com/adistantplain/ADP-PLAYBOOK-2015.pdf<br /><br />I in the end my frustration is that the west does not seem to learn. Wargames on modern topics were my angle in on that because this is a wargaming blog, not a current affairs blog. It is possible (even perhaps likely) that I have been unfair in my characterisation and/or reductionist in my thinking. I am not going to try to defend that. My post says what I wanted to say on the topic and I will leave it at that. <br /><br />As a gamer with an interest in history, I find that to some extent I see conflicts through the lens of the games I play on them. Not as much as I see games through the lens of what I know of the conflicts, but a good game will, within certain parameters, add to my impression of its subject. If someone has played Labyrinth, A Distant Plain, or other games on modern current or ongoing situations, I think it is natural that their experiences with such games will affect their view of the broader situations represented. I'm sure that this is what designers want their designs to do - inform players, ask them to think around the topic, and challenge them to come up with strategies that fit the in-game circumstances.<br /><br />How much that may affect real world decisionmaking I cannot quantify, and it may well be that I have given games both hobby an serious an outsize importance in this regard. <br /><br />Nevetheless, in Afghanistan now we have a humiliation unfolding. This defeat may fundamentally alter the perception the rest of the world has had of the United States. That at high levels the current disaster appears not to have been anticipated is, to my mind, a terrible indictment. <br /><br />Of course, I have no insider knowledge at all, but it seems to me a failure of planning, of imagination, of understanding, and of leadership. <br /><br />On reflection, perhaps I should've just gone for a current affairs post. It would have been fairer!<br /><br />Thanks again, and thank you for your detailed analyis in the other comments here as well.<br /><br />Best wishes,<br />Aaron <br /><br />Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-90136630770958849432021-08-24T23:42:25.881+09:002021-08-24T23:42:25.881+09:00Hi everyone. In my opinion, scope of such type of ...Hi everyone. In my opinion, scope of such type of games shoulnd't be the prediction of future, but rather for the players to familiarize and get acquainted about the campaign they will be engaged later on for real. So the game is not the goal, but a mean to reach a minimum degree of knowledge trough a gaming experience.<br />Predictions, if any, could be possibly made after several thousand of sessions of game play, employing a sort of "Montecarlo" statistical method. Even doing so, since we are inspecting phenomenas ruled by social sciences rather than physics or mathematics, the outcome should't be looked as solid truth but rather as a mere possibility among thousands. From here the consequence: such type of games requires lot of resources vs results that are hard to verify and validate.<br /><br />Paolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05364908440715148572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-84834281749180666042021-08-23T15:25:50.882+09:002021-08-23T15:25:50.882+09:00Many thanks very much for your thoughts, Brian. I ...Many thanks very much for your thoughts, Brian. I will try to respond properly tonight. Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-19254422082437518682021-08-23T14:00:41.566+09:002021-08-23T14:00:41.566+09:00(also, I appear unable to reply to myself!)
So, w...(also, I appear unable to reply to myself!)<br /><br />So, we can try and construct some game analogies, but this does not make a new scenario.<br />It makes an unplayable, or at least pointlessly uncompetitive and not at all comparable game, with victory conditions that no longer apply because one player (Coalition) is effectively no longer at the table, and another player (Government) is not really interested in playing anymore - a catastrophic collapse of morale/interest in what was going on.<br /><br />And beyond just games - if you are talking about COIN theory like FM 3-24, well manuals of doctrine don't cover this either as again, a morale failure of this magnitude reflects political and social events far beyond the ken or power of the unit commander reading the manual.<br /><br />FM 3-24 does make some points about the government of the host nation having to have some kind of credibility or legitimacy among the people it claims to protect and rule. Well, that was a big part of the problem in Afghanistan all along!<br /><br />Finally, besides A Distant Plain I have designed other games on insurgency, many of which belong to one or more families or systems. One of those other families is the "4-box" system. The central concept is an index of "political support" which rolls up a lot of things into it. When one side hits zero political support, there is assumed to be some catastrophic failure or collapse; end of game. On the way there of course, there are numerous and growing problems and disadvantages, so it does accelerate. Titles in the family include Tupamaro, Shining Path, Algeria, Andartes, EOKA, Kandahar.<br /><br />Brian Train<br /><br />PS: funny that you should mention that Washington Post article; the author spent a lot of time and trouble talking to me about it, but it all ended up in the editorial wastebasket. So there is no indication that the game is a co-design, still less that the second designer was not even an American!Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-80539997438531376882021-08-23T13:59:26.982+09:002021-08-23T13:59:26.982+09:00(I'm sorry for the many comments, but there is...(I'm sorry for the many comments, but there is a character limit on them)<br /><br />But we can still try... <br />A day or two after the blog post of mine you linked to, on Boardgamegeek and Facebook there were a couple of threads on the "update scenario" theme that were interesting. I amplified my thoughts and tried to render an ADP analogue there in my unfocused way, the rough game-equivalent (or inequivalent) states and conditions, and how they could be prompted or advanced by deliberately bad play.<br /><br />By 2021:<br />- The actual formal talks opened between the US government and the Taliban in 2020, to which the Government of Afghanistan was not even invited, have an effect far larger than those of Card #24 (US-Taliban talks) because they set in motion a timetable for ultimate American withdrawal. In effect, the Coalition player has played this card and declared that the last bus home for him is 10:35 and he has to be on it, with his copy of the game! <br /><br />- there is a much reduced number of Coalition cubes and a small number of Bases (all those private military contractors have gone home). They cannot Assault and are limited to one Sweep per card. They do not add Aid in Surges (well, they do, but it is all diverted to no game effect - in fact, Aid would be very low because of this). They rarely Train and if they ever do, they do not reduce Patronage.<br /><br />- There is a reduced number of Government cubes, and considerable and accelerated desertion and loss of presence and power among the Government Troops and Police because, quite frankly, the political leadership of Afghanistan is no longer interested in supplying or even paying their security forces. Some members had not been paid in nine months. Government deliberately does not Train and loses some cubes practically every turn (but there are always some Troop cubes; as noted above, some ANA units, especially the Commandos, have fought hard). For his part, the Government player also has to get up early for work tomorrow and wants these people out of his house, so he is not really interested in playing much more. <br /><br />- fewer or no Air Strikes. (Bagram was shut down months ago and less use was being made of airpower anyway - all the private contractors were withdrawn, the ones who among other things kept the Afghan Air Force flying).<br /><br />- a large and growing number of "local understandings" that result in the more or less pre-planned flip-flop or absence of security forces - see this post on my blog for some good links to this (https://brtrain.wordpress.com/2021/08/03/making-flippy-floppy). So along with the loss of cubes above, the effectiveness of Taliban Infiltrate and the Warlord Suborn is much greater by now, as is the Captured Goods rule in Attacks and Ambushes.<br /><br />- Fewer Warlord cubes and bases. President Ghani had been cracking down on their leaders and dismantling their militias for several years. Hence they weren't all that interested in defending such a government. So, Warlords do not Suborn Taliban.<br />Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-9754366947135543022021-08-23T13:57:53.612+09:002021-08-23T13:57:53.612+09:00This comment has been removed by the author.Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-3642610644542270042021-08-23T13:56:45.934+09:002021-08-23T13:56:45.934+09:00Thank you for your comments.
You mentioned A Dis...Thank you for your comments. <br /><br />You mentioned A Distant Plain; this game design stopped in 2013, for a reason.<br />To condemn it because it could not perfectly model the situation 8 years after that end, a situation that only came about with changes in political and operational parameters outside the scope of the game, is a bit much IMO. <br /><br />There is language in the playbook about how the game is a product of our thoughts and research up to 2012/13, and we did not claim any predictive value for it. We meant that. <br /><br />As for this game's possible effect on any real-world decision made about the war in Afghanistan, on any level, I can pretty confidently say there was none! After the game was published there were occasions where unit commanders in both the British and American Army asked for copies of the game, or got back to us later about how they had used A Distant Plain as a form of orientation for their officers, to show them that the situation was more complex than they thought it was. Well, they found that out anyway. <br /><br />We are contending with real reality here, not the ordered incremental cave-shadow that is a game. As has been pointed out above, any "game" exercises the professionals use at the strategic level are more like extended discussion forums or matrix games (which took off in American professional circles only recently). There are few rules and definitely no "victory conditions" to satisfy.<br /><br />Brian Trainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679901195609623306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-38097066578560603522021-08-22T22:09:55.837+09:002021-08-22T22:09:55.837+09:00Let me see if I can find you a link. I can't ...Let me see if I can find you a link. I can't recall where I read them but it's a small list of possibilities.uiduach OBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343510770280547569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-59468802815297742952021-08-22T13:55:07.980+09:002021-08-22T13:55:07.980+09:00Yes, very true Peter.Yes, very true Peter.Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-35335614835821178242021-08-22T05:28:33.470+09:002021-08-22T05:28:33.470+09:00Using wargames to predict the future is always per...Using wargames to predict the future is always perilous. In the case of Afghanistan, among many other variables, it was Napoleon himself who said, "the morale is to the physical as three is to one". No amount of training or equipment will likely suffice if the belief of the soldiers in the cause they represent is weak. Gonsalvohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16531623280789478092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-42342390917795872802021-08-20T22:27:28.138+09:002021-08-20T22:27:28.138+09:00Thanks again, Graham. And the Taliban are on prett...Thanks again, Graham. And the Taliban are on pretty safe ground there - Afghanistan was, after all, invaded!Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-17835251476233673102021-08-20T22:24:13.430+09:002021-08-20T22:24:13.430+09:00Thanks Khusru. Good points to think over. Thanks Khusru. Good points to think over. Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-12266771256784551432021-08-20T22:22:50.777+09:002021-08-20T22:22:50.777+09:00Yes, it is a bit of a spray, JWH. Whether there...Yes, it is a bit of a spray, JWH. Whether there's anything worth taking away from it, I'll leave to you to decide.<br /><br />Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts. Much appreciated :)<br /><br />AaronPrufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-90023552841523912462021-08-20T22:20:03.509+09:002021-08-20T22:20:03.509+09:00Hmm, do you have a link to those at all OB? I woul...Hmm, do you have a link to those at all OB? I would be keen to have a look at them.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />AaronPrufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7386336651732048473.post-34342116716852272142021-08-20T22:18:44.470+09:002021-08-20T22:18:44.470+09:00Thanks Graham - yes, he is highly thought of, alon...Thanks Graham - yes, he is highly thought of, along with other designers of the COIN school. Of course, wargaming can be a very effective tool, but in this case we can see that the results on the ground show things have been very badly miscalculated. Presumably the situation was analysed carefully - and I imagine wargamed - before decisions were made. The official position seems to be that the Afghan military was supposed to be able to handle any threat. It also seems that if there were privately held doubts about this, it was hoped that such doubts would be realised after sufficient time that direct accusatios of US culpability could be avoided. As it turns out, of course, it has been a disaster. Have wargames played a part in that disaster? If wargames were used as part of the decisionmaking process, then we have to say yes.Prufrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17659918463589870423noreply@blogger.com